Climate Analysis and Recommendations in Southeastern Utah National Parks

Introduction

This project analyzes the impact of climate factors on various vegetation types across different seasons using NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) climate data for the Four Corners region and offers recommendations. As temperatures begin to rise across the world and climate change impacts start to show, it is important for Southeastern Utah National Park stakeholders to be aware of these impacts in order to attempt to counteract them. This project will demonstrate the changes in the climate and vegetation as well as the relationship between them.

Data

The data used in this project comes from historical data from the US Geological Survey (USGS). There were two datasets used, one with historic data from 1980-2018 and the other with near-term data from 2021-2024. The first five rows of both dataframes are shown below. Both datasets include the same variables except that representative concentration pathway (RCP) column in the dataset from 1980-2018 includes the string ‘historical’ while the RCP column in the near-term data includes numerical values for predictions of the concentration of green house gases in the atmosphere. More information on the specific variable names and the entire dataset can be found by following the Code tab in the navbar and navigating to the data folder in the Github repository.

Historic Data

long lat year TimePeriod RCP scenario treecanopy Ann_Herb Bare Herb Litter Shrub DrySoilDays_Summer_whole Evap_Summer ExtremeShortTermDryStress_Summer_whole FrostDays_Winter NonDrySWA_Summer_whole PPT_Winter PPT_Summer PPT_Annual T_Winter T_Summer T_Annual Tmax_Summer Tmin_Winter VWC_Winter_whole VWC_Spring_whole VWC_Summer_whole VWC_Fall_whole
0 -110.0472 37.60413 1980 Hist historical sc1 0 0 84 5 11 7 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 13.79 2.69 13.79 0.964835 23.15924 23.159240 37.05 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
1 -110.0472 37.60413 1980 Hist historical sc1 0 0 84 5 11 7 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 13.79 2.69 2.69 0.964835 23.15924 0.964835 37.05 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
2 -110.0472 37.60413 1980 Hist historical sc1 0 0 84 5 11 7 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 13.79 2.69 13.79 0.964835 23.15924 0.964835 37.05 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
3 -110.0472 37.60413 1980 Hist historical sc1 0 0 84 5 11 7 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 13.79 2.69 2.69 0.964835 23.15924 23.159240 37.05 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
4 -110.0472 37.60413 1980 Hist historical sc1 0 0 84 5 11 7 0.0 1.559807 36.16 75.0 0.032114 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN -12.45 0.113447 0.096831 0.041876 0.052298

Near-Term Data

long lat year TimePeriod RCP scenario treecanopy Ann_Herb Bare Herb Litter Shrub DrySoilDays_Summer_whole Evap_Summer ExtremeShortTermDryStress_Summer_whole FrostDays_Winter NonDrySWA_Summer_whole PPT_Winter PPT_Summer PPT_Annual T_Winter T_Summer T_Annual Tmax_Summer Tmin_Winter VWC_Winter_whole VWC_Spring_whole VWC_Summer_whole VWC_Fall_whole
0 -110.0472 37.60413 2021 NT 4.5 sc22 0 0 84 5 11 7 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 5.94 6.37 6.37 1.630333 24.50402 24.50402 36.89 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
1 -110.0472 37.60413 2021 NT 4.5 sc22 0 0 84 5 11 7 0.0 3.242230 36.314 73.0 0.092987 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN -12.77 0.114652 0.078764 0.043514 0.051281
2 -110.0472 37.60413 2021 NT 4.5 sc23 0 0 84 5 11 7 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 6.44 3.09 3.09 1.389056 24.11043 24.11043 37.95 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
3 -110.0472 37.60413 2021 NT 4.5 sc23 0 0 84 5 11 7 0.0 2.401611 36.510 71.0 0.000106 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN -18.96 0.130221 0.096412 0.041232 0.092241
4 -110.0472 37.60413 2021 NT 4.5 sc24 0 0 84 5 11 7 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 5.35 5.32 6.87 -0.334389 25.54266 10.31321 37.74 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN

It is important to note the sample size in each of the datasets. As shown in the histogram below, there are many more samples in the near-term data compared to the historic data. Both datasets have similar amounts of samples by year, indicating that the same locations were sampled roughly the same number of times. It is necessary to keep this in mind as we explore trends from 1980-2024, as the data from 2021-2024 includes many more samples than the previous years. Additionally, we can see that there is no data from 2019 and 2020. It is important to keep this in mind as we look at the timeline as a whole.

Recommendations

The two biggest problems with climate change in these parks appear to be the temperature increase and decrease in the amount of water in the environment. It is difficult to conclude if whether one is causing the other as both have negative impacts on the vegetation. My recommendation would be to combat the reduction of water in the environment as the increase in temperature is likely causing the reduction of water and reducing the temperature in the national parks does not seem feasible.

In order to counteract the reduction of water, park rangers could focus on watering the soil of these regions, specifically during the spring. Watering in the spring is most important as that is when it is decreasing most rapidly. Even though there is an increase in tree canopy overall over time, in the most recent years there has been a decrease in tree canopy so planting trees could be helpful to combat this.